Sweet 16 Preview - Friday

Let's see if I can keep this awful streak alive - I think I was 1 for 4 yesterday, and the one was Kentucky and that game was much closer than the score indicated. I never thought Kentucky was in real trouble, but they didn't dominate like I thought they would. 'Cuse = disappointing. What a stale performance, not sure what went on there. Washington played good ball for 20 minutes but couldn't keep up with WVU's athleticism and depth in the 2nd half. And of course Xavier-KSU was one for the ages, the game of the tourney to date. Yes, even better than Maryland-Mich State last Sunday. I'll be doing a full review of all this weekends games on Monday. For now, here's a preview of tonight's games, tip off in T-minus 2 hours.

We start off with #6 Tennessee and #2 Ohio State. This should be a good one. Both teams are athletic. Both shoot well. Both play good defense. Unfortunately for Tennessee, only one team has Evan Turner and it ain't them. ET should take over at some point and lead the Bucks to the Elite 8. I see a high scoring, close game throughout. Come crunch time, Turner's gonna pull an anti-Wes Johnson and just take over the game. In a game where the score won't indicate how close it really was, I'll say Ohio State 82 Tenessee 68.

At the same time we have an interesting matchup in #10 St. Mary's and #3 Baylor. I wish I can get more in depth about the matchup, but I only saw each team play for the first time last week. Baylor is long and athletic, kind of like a West Virginia lite (I like that). St. Mary's has a solid mix of shooters, bangers, and Australians. If St. Mary's big man Omar Samhan can get the ball within seven feet of the hoop, you can go ahead and mark it down. I'm just so impressed with the big man's ability through the first two games. Don't get me wrong, he's no Hakeem Olajuwon, but he finds a way to get it done. Let's call him a poor man's Tyler Hansbrough for argument's sake. So if Samhan can get it going, he opens up the offense and spreads the floor for the guards and then they can start raining threes like they did against Villanova. However, St. Mary's won't be sneaking up on anyone this time. Baylor has had 5 days to prepare for them. If they have an answer for the big fella, then Baylor can run away with this one. I'm gonna hedge and say St. Mary's plays a good game, but not good enough. Baylor 78 St. Mary's 73.

Now it gets really interesting: #9 Northern Iowa fresh off the biggest upset in over a decade vs #5 Michigan State fresh off a monster last second win over Maryland but fresher off the loss of their best player, Kaylen Lucas, to an ankle injury. I'm such a sucker for the Big Ten. I also think if you give Lupe Izzo's husband 5 days to game plan then he can beat anyone in the country. This includes mighty Northern Iowa. I think NIU, somewhat satisfied with their victory over Kansas, comes out shooting cold, MSU dominates the boards, presses and causes turnovers with their superior athleticism, and just bullies the smaller, less talented team (I hope Bill Self takes notes). MSU in a romp, 75-52.

Now we have the hardest game of the bunch to predict. #1 overrated Duke vs #4 playing without their best player and still somehow alive Purdue. I thought Purdue was going to lose to Sienna. Then I thought they were going to get smoked by Texas A&M. How are they still alive without Robbie Hummel? Did you see what they did int he Big Ten Tournament without him? It was embarrassing. I think Matt Painter is a tremendous coach and I applaud the what he's done with this team in this tournament, but, and it pains me to say this, I think their run ends here. Not that I'm in love with Duke or anything (see overrated comment above), but I do think they have enough to expose the smoke and mirrors the Boilers have created in the last week. Scheyer and Singler will stroke it tonight and we may have our first truly boring night of the tournament. Another romp, Duke 69 Purdue 49.

Tomorrow the Elite Eight kicks off with Kansas State vs Butler at 4:30pm (isn't it weird that one of those teams will be in the Final Four?) and then the game of the tournament on paper, #2 West Virginia vs #1 Kentucky. Oh Mama! Get your popcorn ready.


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